Courage Makes A Majority

10 Things I Want to Hear Tomorrow from Obama

10 Contests in a row for Barack.  10 blow out wins.  10 opportunities to put some distance between him and Hillary have been realized.   Depending on the source (I tend to like MSNBC's Chuck Todd), Barack has built a 151 pledged delegate lead to date. As a quick aside, my prediction to this point was +154, so only three delegates off.  I apparantly screwed the pooch on Wisconsin where I said Obama would be +22, where he was actually +16.  Given his 17 point win, I clearly over estimated the value of a big victory in that state.  Anyway, my overestimation shouldn't be to much of a penalty overall because I have Hillary +46 for Texas and Ohio, and it doesn't seem like that is very likely.  After March 4th, we will take a closer look at the delegate math again.  But I digress, back to the point.

10.  10 incredible results.  Which leads me to the idea that 10 is an important number, so why not utilize it for my debate wish for tomorrow night.  Hillary and Barack will go toe-to-toe...mano e. mano (or womano) in Ohio for a CNN debate.  Clearly with all the momentum, Barack has to stay above the frey.  Keep calm and look presidential.  Hillary, with her campaign in the balance, will do everything possible to engage Barack, attack him, make him look vulnerable and week, and hope for a major gaffe.  But to those who know me, playing it safe isn't my style.  So heare are the 10 things I hope to hear from Barack Obama in tomorrow's debate.

1. "Hillary, how can you claim to be 'ready on Day 1' for the presidency when you haven't even been able to run a presidential campaign with over $100 million dollars at its disposal, let alone a country. "
2. "Hillary, just what allows you to lay claim to the mantle of Commander of Chief moreso than me? Have you ever served in the Military?"
3. "Hillary, what percentage of your speeches have you written yourself?"
4. "Hillary, you claim to be the 'candidate of solutions', what solutions have you successfully enacted during your time in the Senate?"
5. "Hillary, how can you be the President of the UNITED STATES, when you only think big states like New York, California, Texas and Ohio are important?"
6. "Hillary, how can you be relied on to follow the rule of law, when you show no regard for the rules of the nominating process?"
7. "Hillary, you have criticized me for not firming up my stance on public funding of the general election race, however, you have not mentioned what you would do if you won the nomination.  Will you pledge to accept public funding and forgo fundraising on your own?"
8. "Hillary, have you come to the conclusion that your vote to authorize military force in Iraq was a mistake yet, or do you need more time to come around?"
9. "Hillary, you have said that you will fight this all the way to convention and suggested that superdelegates should feel free to overturn the result of the popular voting/pledged delegate count.  Do you feel it necessary to do or say anything to win this nomination, or if the nation continues to choose me over you in the upcoming contests, will you step aside for the good of the party and the country?"
10. "Hillary, you have said you want to see the voters of Florida and Michigan have a voice at the convention, why won't you agree to a contest were both of our names are on the ballot and both of us get a chance to campaign within the state?  or do you feel the need to insist on a result that did not even have my name on the ballot in Michigan to stack the deck in your favor instead of having a level playing field?"

I know that Barack won't be asking the questions of Hillary, but I think you see my point nonetheless.  I realize that none of this will ever happen, but I really would love to see it happen.

Feeling a Little Negative

I have to say that I really am on pins and needles as we advance through the primary season.  The eight straight contests won by Barack(a) don't have me feeling like this has been wrapped up.  In fact, the more wounded Hillary gets the more dangerous she is.  Now that she has decided to go negative with her campaign, I wonder just how far she will go.

I have two quick observations on this.  If Obama is going to be a strong general election candidate, he must be able to weather the negative ads that will attack him, unfairly, on everything from his voting record, questionable fundraisers, non-conventional stances like the talking to all foreign leaders friend or foe, etc.  So far he has hit back pretty well, but it is only going to intensify as Hillary gets more desparate to score points. 

Second, the more I watch Hillary's campaign tactics, the more I realize that choosing Barack Obama as my preferred candidate is right on the money.  Think about it.  Hillary wants to be President but has been unable to run a smooth campaign strategy despite raising over $130 million last year.  Her campaign has been unable to pivot and change course.  She had no plan B (after Iowa and Super Tuesday).  She really has resorted to saying anything to get elected and is willing to contradict herself without shame (agreed to the rules about FL and MI, but now wants to rules to change because she benefits).    Really, she is lucky that I love my country so much, because if she wins the nomination I will vote for her regardless of her lack of moral compass, because we don't need another republican president.

Tomorrow, I plan on writing a post of the top 10 things I want Obama to say in the next debate.  Let me know if you have any suggestions. 

What began as a whipser

has grown to a chorus...From North to South...East to West.  Check this out and pay close attention to the crowds (it is only about 3 minutes long).  10 to 20 thousand everywhere he goes.

Checking My Math

So since my Delegate Math post, we have had 5 contests: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and US Virgin Islands on Saturday; wrapping up with Maine on Sunday.  Let's take a quick minute to see how my predictions panned out.

• Louisiana: My prediction was a 36-20 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results 34-22 based on Barack taking 57% of the vote to Hillary's 36% for a 21 point drubbing.  But the delegates didn't come out as planned. So far -2 on the delegate count.
• Nebraska: My prediction was a 16-8 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results 16-8 based on Barack winning 68% of the caucus delegates to Hillary's 32% for another drubbing this one by 26 points.  Delegate count hit right on the head.  So I am still -2.
• US Virgin Islands: I had no clue on how to call this race, so to be conservative I split the 3 delegates 2-1 for Hillary.  The territory caucus went 90% for Obama, awarding him all 3 delegates.  That makes up the 2 delegates I missed in Lousiana.  Net flat right now.
• Washington: My prediction was a 51-27 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results  gave Obama a 52-26 win with him taking 68% of the caucus delegates compared to Hillary's 31%.  So that pushes my Saturday prediction short 1 delgate.  Obama was +48, I predicted +47.  Not bad.
• Maine: My prediction was a 12-12 split, and this is the one where I screwed the pooch, because Obama continued stomping on Hillary by taking 59% of the caucus delegates to Hillary's 40%, a 19 point descrepancy.  The actual delegate count 15-9.  That moves Obama ahead of my projection +7. 

So overall, pretty good result, 7 ahead of the pace.  Potomac Tuesday is less than 48 hours away and I have Obama +52 (DC +5, Maryland +22, Virginia +25).  Those are big expectations.  Polling looks good with Obama way ahead in all three contests, but we need to see the vote before I can take a breath.   YES WE CAN!

Delegate Math 101

After Daily Kos's DHinMI's excellent diary yesterday on the delegate count to date and the unlikeliness that either candidate can win the nomination through pledged delegates, I thought I would take a closer look at the actual numbers as they stand now.

Based on the analysis below (albeit on the back of an envelope), I think Obama will have a tall order because he will need about 319 of the 796 superdelegates to win the nomination. It is certainly attainable, but not necessarily a given. 

The work I did here tries to take a look at past primaries to predict the delegate counts of the future. I would encourage supporters of either candidate to please critique my assumptions and let me know your thoughts. My profession is in the area of financial analysis, so I try to take some of the lessons in my 15 years or professional experience and apply them here.

State	Total	BO	% Total	HC	% Total	JE	% Total
Iowa	45	16	36%	15	33%	14	31%
New Hampshire	22	9	41%	9	41%	4	18%
Nevada	25	13	52%	12	48%	0	0%
South Carolina	45	25	56%	12	27%	8	18%
Early States	137	63		48		26

It is important to note the John Edwards 26 delegate total. It will become a factor, not a determining factor, but a factor nonetheless. So on to Super Tuesday.

State	Total	BO	% Total	HC	% Total
Alabama	52	29	56%	23	44%
Alaska	13	9	69%	4	31%
America Somoa	3	1	33%	2	67%
Arizona	56	25	45%	31	55%
Arkansas	35	8	23%	27	77%
California	370	163	44%	207	56%
Colorado	55	37	67%	18	33%
Connecticut	48	26	54%	22	46%
Delaware	15	9	60%	6	40%
Georgia	87	60	69%	27	31%
Idaho	18	15	83%	3	17%
Illinois	153	101	66%	52	34%
Kansas	32	23	72%	9	28%
Massachusetts	93	37	40%	56	60%
Minnesota	72	48	67%	24	33%
Missouri	72	36	50%	36	50%
New Jersey	107	48	45%	59	55%
New Mexico	26	13	50%	13	50%
New York	232	95	41%	137	59%
North Dakota	13	8	62%	5	38%
Oklahoma	38	14	37%	24	63%
Tennessee	68	29	43%	39	57%
Utah	23	13	57%	10	43%
Super Tuesday	1681	847		834
Totals to Date	1818	910		882

I have included the % totals to help me with allocating the remaining pledged delegates. First, let's look at the remaining contests that will determine the who receives the remaining 1435 pledged delegates. The way I see it they will break this way:

Barack Obama: Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota.

Hillary Clinton: Dems Abroad, Virgin Islands, Ohio, Texas, Pennslyvania, Guam, Puerto Rico.

Tie: Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, Kentucky.

OK, I know that most delegates are determined by congressional district with the remainder divided up based on statewide vote. If I were to do it accurately, I would look at each CD, but I think the results to date, especially on Super Tuesday give an idea of how things will break.

For the most part Hillary is favored in big states, Ohio, Texas and Pennslvania. If you look at California, New Jersey and Tennesee (I threw out New York because it is her home state). The delegate split was 55%/45%, so that is what I will use in HC states.

On the other hand, Barack Obama was a little more succesful in states he won, especially caucus states (again I ignore the home state, Illinois). For Obama states, I went with a 65%/35% split. Needless to say, Tie states are split 50%/50%. So this is what the remaining primaries look like:

State	Total	BO	# Needed	HC	# Needed	Favored
Dems Abroad	7	3	1112	4	1139	HC
Louisiana	56	36	1076	20	1119	BO
Nebraska	24	16	1060	8	1111	BO
Washington	78	51	1009	27	1084	BO
Virgin Islands	3	1	1008	2	1082	HC
Maine	24	12	996	12	1070	Tie
D.C.	15	10	986	5	1065	BO
Maryland	70	46	940	24	1041	BO
Virginia	83	54	886	29	1012	BO
Hawaii	20	13	873	7	1005	BO
Wisconsin	74	48	825	26	979	BO
Ohio	141	61	764	80	899	HC
Rhode Island	21	11	753	10	889	Tie
Texas	193	83	670	110	779	HC
Vermont	15	8	662	7	772	Tie
Wyoming	12	8	654	4	768	BO
Mississippi	33	21	633	12	756	BO
Pennsylvania	158	68	565	90	666	HC
Guam	4	2	563	2	664	HC
Indiana	72	47	516	25	639	BO
North Carolina	115	75	441	40	599	BO
West Virginia	28	18	423	10	589	BO
Kentucky	51	26	397	25	564	Tie
Oregon	52	34	363	18	546	BO
Montana	16	10	353	6	540	BO
South Dakota	15	10	343	5	535	BO
Puerto Rico	55	24	319	31	504	HC
Total to be Awarded	1435	796		639
Estimated Pledged Dels	3253	1706		1521

That means Obama needs 319 Superdelegates (40% of the 796) to hit the magic 2025 for the nomination, on the flipside Clinton needs 504 Superdelegates (63%). Notice the descrepancy if you add the 2 percentages, it equals 103%. That's because of the 26 pledged delgates that Edwards holds. Which ever candidate gets those delegates will have three precentage points shaved of his/her needed superdelegate total.

I think the biggest thing I take from this back of the envelope estimate is the importance of the big states to Clinton. If she doesn't get Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania (or even if its a tie). The Math changes dramatically for Obama. A tie in any one of those states, reduces his needed superdelegate total 25-30 delegates. If he wins one of those states, he picks up 55-60 pledges delegates that plus an Edwards endorsement with his 26 delegates moves his superdelegate requirement to a very attainable 233-238 (or about 30%). If he picks up two of those states and it is effectively game over. Of course, the Michigan/Florida request by the Clinton camp because even more important, but that is a subject for another diary. So have at it, let me know where I messed up. Thanks.

It is like an addiction

Primary season has really distracted me.  I am pretty energized by the idea of a new president and a new course for this country.  But I have to admit, it is beginning to border on obsession.  Last night I spent an hour on a spread sheet doing "delegate math."  In the end, I keep coming to the same answer, there is no way this will be decided without pledged delegates.    Now I am all for letting the process work itself out, but the fact that these two very qualified candidates continue to take about half of the support of those voting leaves us with the very real possibility that some sort of deal has to be worked out.  Who know what it will be, but I do know this,  I can't spend a couple hours each night lurking around all the progressive/liberal/democratic blogs for the next 5 months until the convention.   It will kill me.

Hopefully after Ohio and Texas on March 4th, the Obama and Clinton campaigns will sit down and figure this out, because if we wait until the August convention, we will be behind the eight ball.  That would leave two months to campaign for president.    I will do a delegate math post later, but in the end Obama has a slight advantage, because he should have about 100-200 delegate lead looking at the pledged delegates only when the primaries are over.  It will still require him to get about 300 super delgates to seal the nomination.  But the whole Michigan Florida thing makes this even more suspect.

At the end of the day, the two candidates, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and few others like Ted Kennedy, John Edwards, Chris Dodd need to work out a suggestion to who should be the candidate.  My fear is Obama is the bigger person in all of the this, and steps aside even though he will have more pledged delegates (regardless of Michigan and Florida).   Of course, they could always be the out of leftfield outcome that they agree to a different candidate...like I don't know...maybe, Al Gore?!?!  Wouldn't that be interesting!  I just hope for my sake, they get this overwith in March.

The Culture of Death

I saw this the other day, and it made my heart skip a beat.   Apparently, in Iran, two sisters are to be stoned to death for "adultery".   I put adultery in quotes because the husband of one of the women produced a video tape of his wife talking to other men.  Not a sex tape or a some lude act, but rather she was in the company of other men.  I imagine her sister was with her since she is set to be executed with her.

Reading the short article I see that she was already tried once for the crime and found guilty of illegal relations and received 99 lashes.  So she was convicted once, whipped 99 times, but that wasn't good enough for the savages (yes I called them savages because I can't think of another more fitting term).   Sister got 99 as well. 

After I read the article, I thought thank God that I don't live in a country that 1) considers adultery a criminal violation, 2) can sentence people to be whipped or stoned and 3) prohibits being tried for the same crime twice.  Then I thought, where is the outrage and news coverage (the article was from a UK paper).  Remember the furor around Michael Fay, the kid in Singapore in 1994 that was sentenced to 4 months in jail and six strokes of the cane for spraying graffiti on cars.  He ended up getting 4 strokes, but the coverage was massive.  Here, these women have been whipped nearly 100 times and now will be put to death by people throwing rocks at them until they stop breathing.

Then I realize that as a country, where do we have a leg to stand on.  Nevermind our stance on torture (we use it but say we don't) and the bogus legal status of "enemy combatants" that allow our government to hold people indefinitely without charges, denying the right to a writ of habeas corpus.  I am talking about the Death Penalty.  We, as a country still allow our own savage behavior with state sanctioned killing.  It is sick and quite frankly disappointing that we continue to allow our country to be held to the standard of the lowest common denominator.  Thoughts like, "well most of the country is supportive of the death penalty and the Bible does say an "Eye for an Eye'."

It is all bullshit.  If we want to claim the mantle of the moral compass of the world, or the defender of human rights and dignity, we need to challenge ourselves to be better than the savage thoughts of the American Pysche.  I know too many descent people that are pro-death penalty.  The idea of revenge is powerful, but we can't continue to call murder a crime then use it as a tool for punishment. 

I always say to someone who is pro-death penalty, "do you think we ever put an innocent person to death?"  Given the consistent news of exonerated death row inmates, the answer is always yes.  Then I follow with the hypothetical, "what if the person you loved the most was that innocent person, would you still find the death penatly acceptable?"  Funny, but I never get an answer to the question.

Update:  Not that this is a story about executions, but a US Citizen (a woman) was arrested, strip searched, jailed, and forced to sign a confession for sitting with a male colleague in Starbucks in Saudi Arabia.  That made the US News.

Victory!!

I just got off the phone with my Mom.  She will cast her vote (and so will my father) for Barack Obama!!

That calls for a little Johnny Drama Victory Call:

YES WE CAN!

Enough said

The Question of Electability

I will try to keep this short and sweet.  I assert that Barack Obama is so much more electable that Hillary Clinton based on a few items.

First, as I outlined in my post a couple of days ago, the war in Iraq is a key issue.  If Hillary is our candidate, she is ineffective in trying to differentiate her position from the Republican candidate.  She voted for the war.  She can not criticize anyone on the issue.  Instead we will be treated to her painful 20 minute attempt to rationalize her vote, say why whe would do it differently if she knew then what she knew know, etc.  The Iraq War needs to be a key point in this election, and Hillary eliminates that possibility.

Second, polling shows just how divisive a figure she is.  Her negative rating is 51% and whopping 47% say the would cast a vote against her (saying that a primary driver of 1 of every 2 voters for the republican candidate would be to vote against Hilary).  Obama's negatives are lower 45%, and even more importantly, his vote against percentage is only 36% or 11% lower than Hillary.  He is not the polarizing figure she is. 

Third, he is a movement candidate, bring new voters to the process that haven't been seen before.  Voters that will likely disappear if he is not at the top of the ticket.  Look at Iowa.  Almost 25% of the voters participating in the caucus were under 30.  1 in 4 voters!  Barack Obama took nearly 60% of that vote.  Young voter participation is doubling, in large part, to Obama's appeal to that demographic.   In New Hampshire, nearly 20% of the voters were under 30 and again Obama took the majority of them.  Nevada: 13% of the vote. 60% for Obama. South Carolina: 15% of the vote.  65% for Obama.  These numbers are astounding and figure to tilt even more towards Obama as likely nominee John McCain is so far removed from the age group (he is over 70 years old), that increasing the participation of this demographic is GREAT news for the democrats.   Obama is the only candidate that brings these voters out.

Fourth, he's a map changer.  Again look at South Carolina, a state that is normally not considered a target for the Democratic nominee.  Barack Obama garnered more votes (295,000) than the top 2 GOP candidates combined  (276,000).   Total Democratic turnout (530,000) was well above GOP turnout (430,000), putting this state in play for the election.  Turnout was equally impressive in Iowa and New Hampshire, both swing states for the election.  Race is not an issue as Obama won the whitest state in the union, Iowa (97% white). 

Other states like Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Virginia, all normal locks for the GOP, come into play, and only into play if Obama is the nominee.  At the same time, democratic stalwarts like New York, California, Illinois, Massachussettes and New Jersey still stay firmly in the Dem's column.  And while McCain is trying to appeal to social conservatives in the south, a key voting bloc that he struggles to attract.  Obama can go on the offensive in other key battleground states like Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Again, all this doesn't happen with Hillary as the candidate.

So there you have it, 4 solid reasons why Barack is more electable than Hillary come November.