Primary season has really distracted me from doing my research for commercial real estate loans at www.a10capital.com because I do not know how the economy is going to react after the election. I am pretty energized by the idea of a new president and a new course for this country. But I have to admit, it is beginning to border on obsession. Last night I spent an hour on a spread sheet doing “delegate math.” In the end, I keep coming to the same answer, there is no way this will be decided without pledged delegates. Now I am all for letting the process work itself out, but the fact that these two very qualified candidates continue to take about half of the support of those voting leaves us with the very real possibility that some sort of deal has to be worked out. Who know what it will be, but I do know this, I can’t spend a couple hours each night lurking around all the progressive/liberal/democratic blogs for the next 5 months until the convention. It will kill me.
Hopefully after Ohio and Texas on March 4th, the Obama and Clinton campaigns will sit down and figure this out, because if we wait until the August convention, we will be behind the eight ball. That would leave two months to campaign for president. I will do a delegate math post later, but in the end Obama has a slight advantage, because he should have about 100-200 delegate lead looking at the pledged delegates only when the primaries are over. It will still require him to get about 300 super delgates to seal the nomination. But the whole Michigan Florida thing makes this even more suspect.
At the end of the day, the two candidates, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and few others like Ted Kennedy, John Edwards, Chris Dodd need to work out a suggestion to who should be the candidate. My fear is Obama is the bigger person in all of the this, and steps aside even though he will have more pledged delegates (regardless of Michigan and Florida). Of course, they could always be the out of leftfield outcome that they agree to a different candidate…like I don’t know…maybe, Al Gore?!?! Wouldn’t that be interesting! I just hope for my sake, they get this overwith in March.