Courage Makes A Majority

I Can't Find the Words!

It has been nearly 15 hours since we have had a president-elect Obama, and I am still having trouble finding the words to describe my joy, but maybe I don't need words.  There was a salient moment last night on MSNBC when they called the election for Obama.  The station played five minutes of joyful celebration all accross this nation.  No real words other then a few Yes We Can chants from those gathered. Just cheers and expressions of glee and happiness (and relief). 

Thank you MSNBC for not ruining the moment with idle pundit-speak, just let the scene speak for itself.  No words needed.

I will have something to say at some point, and it will start with my thoughts I shared with you in February 2007, when I concluded that "Obama might be my guy".  He turned out to be my guy indeed.  Now comes the hard part...to govern effectively.

I will worry about that tomorrow as today I would like to savor the moment.

YOU are the Change We Have Been Waiting For!

Today is the day!  I had the great experience of going to the polls today with my entire family.  I held my son, Sam in one arm, while I filled out my ballot with the other.  In the polling station next to me was my wife, Hilary, who had our daughter, Grace attached to her hip as she filled out her ballot. 

It is that moment that it really connected.  As my candidate has said many times, that this election isn't about him; it is about all of you.  Barack Obama is the name I checked for President, but I voted not for him, but for me...and my wife...and my daughter...and my son;  my mother, father, two brothers, mulitple brothers and sisters in-law, my father-in-law, cousins, aunts, uncles, friends and neighbors. 

Many of them may not support Barack Obama, but my vote was still for them.  I just pray that when all the votes are counted we find ourselves on a new path.  It may be uncertain, it may seem risky, but it will be a path in a new direction.  And with risk comes reward...for all of us, whether you voted for him or not. 

It can't happen without your vote...YOU are the change we have been waiting for.

Get out there and vote.

Time to Crush Their Spirit

I know, it has been a long time.  I was just watching Keith Olbermann and I had a bit of an epiphany.  Keith was doing a great special comment telling John McCain to get control of his campaign.  The vitriol among the Republican base has been whipped into such a frenzy that the networks have been questioning the tactics of the GOP and whether we now have a safety issue. 

It has become clear to me as I watch this election unfold.  We are getting a glimpse at the worst our society has to offer.  The idea that people feel its appropriate to equivocate the Democratic Nominee to a Terrorist, Manchurian Candidate and a Traitor is disturbing.  Shouts of "Kill Him!" are even more frightening. 

But in all of this drudgery, something has crystallized for me.  This moment; This election provides us an opportunity beyond electing a once in a life time leader.  It is the chance for us, Democrats and Independents, to destroy the Republican party as it is currently constituted by delivering an election night ass whipping like we haven't seen since days of FDR.

Having a the Democratic Party own the White House, Sixty Senate seats and maybe 100 seat majority in the House would do just that.   If we can see election results somewhere in that neighborhood, it would send a message to the lowest common denominator of our society, those people shouting "Traitor" and "Kill Him."  It would show them they are clearly on the fringe of our society.  That the power they have enjoyed the last eight years under George Bush has been taken away.   And without that power, why even bother showing up. 

It is a chance to drive a wedge between traditional conservatives that believe in less govenment, fiscal responsiblity and dare I say civil liberties (the government should not mettle in our lives) and the social conservatives that could care less about fiscal issues and civil liberties and see the government as a tool to legislate culture and morality.

Let's break their spirt. 

• Step 1: Take the White House.  Looking good so far, based on the latest polling, 538.com predicts Obama's chance of winning at about 95.8%.  Furthermore, the chance of an Obama landslide (defined as winning over 375 electoral votes) is about 53.4%.   Now, my guess it the election will tighten a bit between now and November 4th, but I rather be in this position than McCain's.
• Step 2: Take 60 Senate Seats.  This one is a bit tougher, but still possible.  First, the Democrats start with 50 seats (including Bernie Sanders I-VT, but not Joe Leiberman I-CT who is not only dead to me, but also the Senate Democrats).  If we win the White House, both Joe Biden and Barack Obama's seats will be filled by appointments from Democratic Governors.  There are no Democratic Senate Seats at risk (Landrieu in LA is safe),  There are four seats that are definite pickups, VA, CO, NM and NH.  That's 54.  There are another 4 that are highly likely to flip: MN, OR, AK, NC.  That is 58.  Two more to get and in a landslide some questionable seats can flip and we have 3 targets (MS, GA, KY).  All three of these states are Eastern/Central Time Zone so we will have an idea early in the night.    Even if we don't flip those last two seats, we may be able to flip some sitting moderate Republican senators like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe or John Sununu.
• Step 3: Take a 100 seat majority in the House.  The Dems currently have a 37 seat majorty that means they have to flip 32 more seats (37+32 new Dem seats+32 less GOP seats=101 seat majority).   Our good friends at Swing State Project project 5 GOP seats are likely to flip, 23 are toss-ups and another 15 are weak holds for the GOP, so there are 43 seats in play, on the other hand there is only 1 Dem seat likely to flip, 3 toss-ups and 14 more weak holds.  Again in a landslide election, there is a good chance for the Dems to hold most of their seats and flip most of the GOP seats.
• Step 4: Take those solid majorities and mandate from the public for Obama and use it wisely, govern effectively and prove that the progressive ideology is superior to the failed conservatism fo the last 8 years.

There you have it.  A four step plan to change the political landscape for the next generation.  Let's go and deliver.  And for your viewing pleasure, here is Keith's special comment from tonight's show.

Music To My Ears: "I Refuse To Be Lectured"

I saw this today will reading TPM Election Central.  When I saw it, I stood up, clapped my hands and shouted, "FINALLY!"  What you about to read is a crystal clear example of why, I believe, that Barack Obama is the best candidate for President of the United States.

To set it up, unless you are living under a rock, the past two days has seen a bit of a back and forth between the candidates over how to best keep America safe from terrorists.  Barack firmly establishes that a commitment to the Constitution and rule of law is not  mutually exclusive from keeping us safe from terrorists. 

Grandpa McBush, in typical yelling at the clouds fashion, called Obama naive and having a "September 10th" mindset.  Apparently, your un-American if you call for upholding the Constitution.  Cranky McSame even rolled out "Mr. 9/11" Guiliani to be his chief attack dog today.

Barack's response:

"I refuse to be lectured on national security by people who are responsible for the most disastrous set of foreign policy decisions in the recent history of the United States. The other side likes to use 9/11 as a political bludgeon. Well, let's talk about 9/11.

"The people who were responsible for murdering 3,000 Americans on 9/11 have not been brought to justice. They are Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda and their sponsors -- the Taliban. They were in Afghanistan. And yet George Bush and John McCain decided in 2002 that we should take our eye off of Afghanistan so that we could invade and occupy a country that had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. The case for war in Iraq was so thin that George Bush and John McCain had to hype the threat of Saddam Hussein, and make false promises that we'd be greeted as liberators. They misled the American people, and took us into a misguided war.

"Here are the results of their policy. Osama bin Laden and his top leadership -- the people who murdered 3000 Americans -- have a safe-haven in northwest Pakistan, where they operate with such freedom of action that they can still put out hate-filled audiotapes to the outside world. That's the result of the Bush-McCain approach to the war on terrorism."

Music to my ears.  My candidate, a Democrat, refusing to cede foreign policy expertise to the republicans, who clam such knowledge because, well, because their republican.  For too long the conventional wisdom in this country is that Republicans have an "advantage" when it comes to foreign policy debates.   

Democrats have long avoided to debate.  No longer.  Pretty stark statement that the murderers that killed over 3,000 Americans have gone unpunished and remain free to this day.  For 7.5 years we have known who is responsible but have done nothing to capture them and bring them to justice.   

Instead we sacrificed the lives of another 4,000 Americans pursuing a war based, in part, on the premise that there was a connection to 9/11.  7,000 dead Americans and another 30,000 wounded, and still, Osama bin Laden remains at large.

Keep talking tough John, because in 139 days, your time as a central figure in politics will be over and you can join Bob Dole in the pantheon of pathetic presidential candidates.  I'm sure he can get you a job as a celebrity spokesman for Viagra so you can be just like him.

 

Stark Choice

I have said it a number of times.  The choice between John McCain and Barack Obama is stark.   There is no way to really be undecided about this race.  Whether your #1 priority is the economy, healthcare or national security, the choice is simple to distiguish.

Just on the subject of Iraq, Barack shows that stark contrast with little effort.

The choice is clear for our future.  Change or more of the same.  I vote for change.

How old is John McCain?

Really, for a man in his early seventies, he acts like a fifth grader.  This is rich.  First, John McCain gets criticized by Barack Obama for his opposition to the 21st Centurty GI Bill.  Here is the key quote:

"I respect Sen. John McCain's service to our country. He is one of those heroes of which I speak. But I can't understand why he would line up behind the President in his opposition to this GI Bill. I can't believe why he believes it is too generous to our veterans. I could not disagree with him and the president more on this issue. There are many issues that lend themselves to partisan posturing but giving our veterans the chance to go to college should not be one of them."

It was an appropriate criticism of a man who claims to be pro-veteran because...well, he is a veteran.  So how does he respond.  He argues the merits, right?  Nope. He decides that since he is a vet, he is above criticism on this issue and starts yelling at the clouds.  This is perfect, because it makes him just like Bush, another Republican beyond criticism.

"It is typical, but no less offensive that Sen. Obama uses the Senate floor to take cheap shots at an opponent and easy advantage of an issue he has less than zero understanding of...And I take a backseat to no one in my affection, respect and devotion to veterans. And I will not accept from Sen. Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did."

It's a classic ploy, "because you did not stand in my shoes I am beyond reproach by you" attitude.  Except, it's bullshit.  Excuse me, Mr. McCain but your service to this country does not impune you from criticism of your actions.  You chose to side with a very unpopular president and oppose an extremely popular bill (it did pass with over 70 votes in the Senate, as well as a veto proof majority in the house). 

Your quote above is shameful as you try to hide behind the very service you claim to honor.  Your 5 year stay as POW in Vietnam is held in the highest regard by most Americans, including me.  But, it doesn't provide you with a shield from legitimate criticism. 

When the time came for you to stand up to provide our veterans with an avenue to gain a 4-year college degree (housing and books included) after serving six years in the military, you stood against them.  You may have had merit to your argument, but instead of standing by those merits, you decided to play the Veteran card. 

I got news for you, you don't get to determine when it's appropriate to criticize you, the American people do, regardless if they served or not.  I got a little more news for you, there are more ways than one to serve this country and most them don't include putting on a uniform and taking up a weapon.  You can continue to yell at the clouds all you want, but come November, America will have spoken and it will say, in one voice, Yes We Can Change!

Oh, and Barack, bless his heart, hit McCain right back, and called him out for what he really is...a bully.  It is nice to have a Democrat with a spine.

" It's disappointing that Sen. McCain and his campaign used this issue to launch yet another lengthy personal, political attack instead of debating an honest policy difference. He should know that this is not about John McCain or Barack Obama -- it’s about giving our veterans a real chance to afford four years of college without harming retention.  Sen. Webb’s bipartisan bill will do this, and the bill that John McCain supports would not. These endless diatribes and schoolyard taunts from the McCain campaign do nothing to advance the debate about what matters to the American people."

Well done Barack.  Don't worry, we got your back.

10 Things I Want to Hear Tomorrow from Obama

10 Contests in a row for Barack.  10 blow out wins.  10 opportunities to put some distance between him and Hillary have been realized.   Depending on the source (I tend to like MSNBC's Chuck Todd), Barack has built a 151 pledged delegate lead to date. As a quick aside, my prediction to this point was +154, so only three delegates off.  I apparantly screwed the pooch on Wisconsin where I said Obama would be +22, where he was actually +16.  Given his 17 point win, I clearly over estimated the value of a big victory in that state.  Anyway, my overestimation shouldn't be to much of a penalty overall because I have Hillary +46 for Texas and Ohio, and it doesn't seem like that is very likely.  After March 4th, we will take a closer look at the delegate math again.  But I digress, back to the point.

10.  10 incredible results.  Which leads me to the idea that 10 is an important number, so why not utilize it for my debate wish for tomorrow night.  Hillary and Barack will go toe-to-toe...mano e. mano (or womano) in Ohio for a CNN debate.  Clearly with all the momentum, Barack has to stay above the frey.  Keep calm and look presidential.  Hillary, with her campaign in the balance, will do everything possible to engage Barack, attack him, make him look vulnerable and week, and hope for a major gaffe.  But to those who know me, playing it safe isn't my style.  So heare are the 10 things I hope to hear from Barack Obama in tomorrow's debate.

1. "Hillary, how can you claim to be 'ready on Day 1' for the presidency when you haven't even been able to run a presidential campaign with over $100 million dollars at its disposal, let alone a country. "
2. "Hillary, just what allows you to lay claim to the mantle of Commander of Chief moreso than me? Have you ever served in the Military?"
3. "Hillary, what percentage of your speeches have you written yourself?"
4. "Hillary, you claim to be the 'candidate of solutions', what solutions have you successfully enacted during your time in the Senate?"
5. "Hillary, how can you be the President of the UNITED STATES, when you only think big states like New York, California, Texas and Ohio are important?"
6. "Hillary, how can you be relied on to follow the rule of law, when you show no regard for the rules of the nominating process?"
7. "Hillary, you have criticized me for not firming up my stance on public funding of the general election race, however, you have not mentioned what you would do if you won the nomination.  Will you pledge to accept public funding and forgo fundraising on your own?"
8. "Hillary, have you come to the conclusion that your vote to authorize military force in Iraq was a mistake yet, or do you need more time to come around?"
9. "Hillary, you have said that you will fight this all the way to convention and suggested that superdelegates should feel free to overturn the result of the popular voting/pledged delegate count.  Do you feel it necessary to do or say anything to win this nomination, or if the nation continues to choose me over you in the upcoming contests, will you step aside for the good of the party and the country?"
10. "Hillary, you have said you want to see the voters of Florida and Michigan have a voice at the convention, why won't you agree to a contest were both of our names are on the ballot and both of us get a chance to campaign within the state?  or do you feel the need to insist on a result that did not even have my name on the ballot in Michigan to stack the deck in your favor instead of having a level playing field?"

I know that Barack won't be asking the questions of Hillary, but I think you see my point nonetheless.  I realize that none of this will ever happen, but I really would love to see it happen.

What began as a whipser

has grown to a chorus...From North to South...East to West.  Check this out and pay close attention to the crowds (it is only about 3 minutes long).  10 to 20 thousand everywhere he goes.