Courage Makes A Majority

YOU are the Change We Have Been Waiting For!

Today is the day!  I had the great experience of going to the polls today with my entire family.  I held my son, Sam in one arm, while I filled out my ballot with the other.  In the polling station next to me was my wife, Hilary, who had our daughter, Grace attached to her hip as she filled out her ballot. 

It is that moment that it really connected.  As my candidate has said many times, that this election isn't about him; it is about all of you.  Barack Obama is the name I checked for President, but I voted not for him, but for me...and my wife...and my daughter...and my son;  my mother, father, two brothers, mulitple brothers and sisters in-law, my father-in-law, cousins, aunts, uncles, friends and neighbors. 

Many of them may not support Barack Obama, but my vote was still for them.  I just pray that when all the votes are counted we find ourselves on a new path.  It may be uncertain, it may seem risky, but it will be a path in a new direction.  And with risk comes reward...for all of us, whether you voted for him or not. 

It can't happen without your vote...YOU are the change we have been waiting for.

Get out there and vote.

Time to Crush Their Spirit

I know, it has been a long time.  I was just watching Keith Olbermann and I had a bit of an epiphany.  Keith was doing a great special comment telling John McCain to get control of his campaign.  The vitriol among the Republican base has been whipped into such a frenzy that the networks have been questioning the tactics of the GOP and whether we now have a safety issue. 

It has become clear to me as I watch this election unfold.  We are getting a glimpse at the worst our society has to offer.  The idea that people feel its appropriate to equivocate the Democratic Nominee to a Terrorist, Manchurian Candidate and a Traitor is disturbing.  Shouts of "Kill Him!" are even more frightening. 

But in all of this drudgery, something has crystallized for me.  This moment; This election provides us an opportunity beyond electing a once in a life time leader.  It is the chance for us, Democrats and Independents, to destroy the Republican party as it is currently constituted by delivering an election night ass whipping like we haven't seen since days of FDR.

Having a the Democratic Party own the White House, Sixty Senate seats and maybe 100 seat majority in the House would do just that.   If we can see election results somewhere in that neighborhood, it would send a message to the lowest common denominator of our society, those people shouting "Traitor" and "Kill Him."  It would show them they are clearly on the fringe of our society.  That the power they have enjoyed the last eight years under George Bush has been taken away.   And without that power, why even bother showing up. 

It is a chance to drive a wedge between traditional conservatives that believe in less govenment, fiscal responsiblity and dare I say civil liberties (the government should not mettle in our lives) and the social conservatives that could care less about fiscal issues and civil liberties and see the government as a tool to legislate culture and morality.

Let's break their spirt. 

• Step 1: Take the White House.  Looking good so far, based on the latest polling, 538.com predicts Obama's chance of winning at about 95.8%.  Furthermore, the chance of an Obama landslide (defined as winning over 375 electoral votes) is about 53.4%.   Now, my guess it the election will tighten a bit between now and November 4th, but I rather be in this position than McCain's.
• Step 2: Take 60 Senate Seats.  This one is a bit tougher, but still possible.  First, the Democrats start with 50 seats (including Bernie Sanders I-VT, but not Joe Leiberman I-CT who is not only dead to me, but also the Senate Democrats).  If we win the White House, both Joe Biden and Barack Obama's seats will be filled by appointments from Democratic Governors.  There are no Democratic Senate Seats at risk (Landrieu in LA is safe),  There are four seats that are definite pickups, VA, CO, NM and NH.  That's 54.  There are another 4 that are highly likely to flip: MN, OR, AK, NC.  That is 58.  Two more to get and in a landslide some questionable seats can flip and we have 3 targets (MS, GA, KY).  All three of these states are Eastern/Central Time Zone so we will have an idea early in the night.    Even if we don't flip those last two seats, we may be able to flip some sitting moderate Republican senators like Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe or John Sununu.
• Step 3: Take a 100 seat majority in the House.  The Dems currently have a 37 seat majorty that means they have to flip 32 more seats (37+32 new Dem seats+32 less GOP seats=101 seat majority).   Our good friends at Swing State Project project 5 GOP seats are likely to flip, 23 are toss-ups and another 15 are weak holds for the GOP, so there are 43 seats in play, on the other hand there is only 1 Dem seat likely to flip, 3 toss-ups and 14 more weak holds.  Again in a landslide election, there is a good chance for the Dems to hold most of their seats and flip most of the GOP seats.
• Step 4: Take those solid majorities and mandate from the public for Obama and use it wisely, govern effectively and prove that the progressive ideology is superior to the failed conservatism fo the last 8 years.

There you have it.  A four step plan to change the political landscape for the next generation.  Let's go and deliver.  And for your viewing pleasure, here is Keith's special comment from tonight's show.

Two Words, Hillary. Are they that hard to say?

I don't want to stay on this topic too long, but really...how hard is it to say, "I'm Sorry."  Hillary Clinton is trying to deal with the RFK assassination comment and this is the only "apology" she can muster.

"I regret that if my referencing that moment of trauma for our entire nation, particularly for the Kennedy family was in any way offensive. I certainly had no intention of that whatsoever. My view is that we have to look to the past and to our leaders who have inspired us and give us a lot to live up to and I'm honored to hold sen. Kennedy's seat in the United States Senate in the state of New York, and have the highest regard for the entire Kennedy family."

Unbelievable.  Why the nuance, Hillary?  I know you can't say "I fucked up" but you could say that you're sorry.  You didn't say you were sorry for what you said, you said you regret if people took it the wrong way or basically that it wasn't your fault.  You didn't even apologize to Senator Obama.  How hard is it?

It reminds me of her nuance around her Iraq war vote, and how she never said she was wrong and that she was sorry.  You know, things like this:

“I made a considered judgment, I didn’t make a speech, I made a decision and it was a decision based on my best assessment on what would be in the interest of our country at that very uncertain time.”

Problem was, she never even read the intelligence estimate.   She could have said she messed up and the vote was wrong, but it always comes down to someone else's mistake that led to her gaffe.  She never takes responsibilty for what happens. 

I'm sorry.  It's really simple.  My six year old says it all the time.  Come to think of it, so does my two year old.  I think a sixty year old senator could muster the courage to do it as well.

Update:  Apparently, the New York Times agrees with me (well, actually it's probably better said that I agree with them since I am a nobody).

But she could, at least, have apologized.  Instead, she issued one of those tedious non-apology apologies in which it sounds like the person who is being offended is somehow at fault: "I regret that if my referencing that moment of trauma for our entire nation, and particularly for the Kennedy family was in any way offensive."

Nothing to See Here...Please Move Along

That, of course, is what the police say at the scene of a fatal accident.  That is what Hillary Clinton's press team is now saying with her gaffe of all gaffes, the invoking of RFK's assassination as a reason for her staying in the race with no hope of winning the nomination.

Unfortunately, that isn't how the press is treating this political event.  I would love to say something eloquent about this episode, but the reality is Keith says it so much better than I ever would.  So I give you Keith.

I will say this.  I, no doubt believe, that Hillary was trying to make the point that primary season can go in to the summer.  I also believe that she was, in no way advocating, for such violence to occur.  This was nothing more than an inartful explanation of her staying in the race.  However, given the uproar around Barack's "bitter/cling" comments during a private fundraiser, no one should be surprised or offended about the uproar here (she made these comments during a editorial board review and they were broadcast live on the Internet via streaming video). 

Senator Clinton, the time has come, everyone know it but you.  Please stop making it worse for everyone, including you.

and in case anyone is wondering.  Here is some video on what just happened to Hillary's VP chances:

How old is John McCain?

Really, for a man in his early seventies, he acts like a fifth grader.  This is rich.  First, John McCain gets criticized by Barack Obama for his opposition to the 21st Centurty GI Bill.  Here is the key quote:

"I respect Sen. John McCain's service to our country. He is one of those heroes of which I speak. But I can't understand why he would line up behind the President in his opposition to this GI Bill. I can't believe why he believes it is too generous to our veterans. I could not disagree with him and the president more on this issue. There are many issues that lend themselves to partisan posturing but giving our veterans the chance to go to college should not be one of them."

It was an appropriate criticism of a man who claims to be pro-veteran because...well, he is a veteran.  So how does he respond.  He argues the merits, right?  Nope. He decides that since he is a vet, he is above criticism on this issue and starts yelling at the clouds.  This is perfect, because it makes him just like Bush, another Republican beyond criticism.

"It is typical, but no less offensive that Sen. Obama uses the Senate floor to take cheap shots at an opponent and easy advantage of an issue he has less than zero understanding of...And I take a backseat to no one in my affection, respect and devotion to veterans. And I will not accept from Sen. Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did."

It's a classic ploy, "because you did not stand in my shoes I am beyond reproach by you" attitude.  Except, it's bullshit.  Excuse me, Mr. McCain but your service to this country does not impune you from criticism of your actions.  You chose to side with a very unpopular president and oppose an extremely popular bill (it did pass with over 70 votes in the Senate, as well as a veto proof majority in the house). 

Your quote above is shameful as you try to hide behind the very service you claim to honor.  Your 5 year stay as POW in Vietnam is held in the highest regard by most Americans, including me.  But, it doesn't provide you with a shield from legitimate criticism. 

When the time came for you to stand up to provide our veterans with an avenue to gain a 4-year college degree (housing and books included) after serving six years in the military, you stood against them.  You may have had merit to your argument, but instead of standing by those merits, you decided to play the Veteran card. 

I got news for you, you don't get to determine when it's appropriate to criticize you, the American people do, regardless if they served or not.  I got a little more news for you, there are more ways than one to serve this country and most them don't include putting on a uniform and taking up a weapon.  You can continue to yell at the clouds all you want, but come November, America will have spoken and it will say, in one voice, Yes We Can Change!

Oh, and Barack, bless his heart, hit McCain right back, and called him out for what he really is...a bully.  It is nice to have a Democrat with a spine.

" It's disappointing that Sen. McCain and his campaign used this issue to launch yet another lengthy personal, political attack instead of debating an honest policy difference. He should know that this is not about John McCain or Barack Obama -- it’s about giving our veterans a real chance to afford four years of college without harming retention.  Sen. Webb’s bipartisan bill will do this, and the bill that John McCain supports would not. These endless diatribes and schoolyard taunts from the McCain campaign do nothing to advance the debate about what matters to the American people."

Well done Barack.  Don't worry, we got your back.

It's not the Candidates, It's the Issues

The primary season is finally coming to a close.  After tomorrow, only 2 states and Puerto Rico are left.  That and a whole lot of bitterness and hurt feelings.  I see it alot on the blogs and the news.  Hillary supporters are pissed, and they will not being joining Obama Nation this fall because of perceived "disprespect" to their candidate.

My last post nonwithstanding, Hillary has been a strong candidate, but in my humble opinion, she was a doomed candidate for one reason and one reason alone.  Not because she was a woman; Not because she was divisive persona; Not because she voted for the War; and not even that she was a "more of the same" candidate in a "change" election.  The reason she was doomed is a lack of electoral vision.

What do I mean by that?  She lost Iowa and needed an unscripted human moment to bring her back.  She needed a knock out blow on Super Tuesday and when she failed to get it, she completely wrote off the next 11 contests.  Texas and Ohio was supposed to turn it around.  Didn't happen.  Ditto for Pennsylvania.  Ditto for Didn't Happen.  North Carolina - Game Changer.  Unfortuantely for her, it was for Obama.    At no time did she ever show any vision in her campaign.   

I share this not becuase I need to some home denigrate Hillary's campaign.  I share this because in the end, she is a flawed candidate, and for that matter, so is Barack.   And, in the end, IT DOESN'T MATTER. 

Hillary-supporters:  This election is not about the candidates, its about the issues.  There is nothing principled about enabling a John McCain presidency out of spite.  Yes, there are some Obama supporters that are idiots.  Yes, there are some that are sexist.   Yes, there are some that are voting for him because he is not Hillary.  Yes, there are some that are arrogant.  Yes, there are some that idolize him. 

But they are not the reason that Hillary lost, and the time to stop blaming them for Hillary's loss has come.  Now that it's over, let's remember the state of the country.  The choice is stark.  The choice isn't Obama or McCain.  It's Progress or Regress.

We can either continue a tax policy that benefits the top 2% of the population or one that helps the middle class.

We can either continue the cowboy diplomacy of the past 7 years, or return to a more nuanced, direct diplomacy that returns the country to a decent standing in the international community.

We can either keep the war in Iraq going another 6 years or bring our men and women home in 18 months. 

We can either cede the Supreme Court to conservative ideology for the next 30 years (and kiss Roe v Wade goodbye) or replace Justices Stevens and Ginsburg (and maybe one more) with a reliable progressive jurist.

We can either continue to sacrifice our personal freedoms in the name of National Security, or can restore a reasonable right to privacy and rectify the dispicable treament of habeas corpus.

We can either continue to ignore the plight of the environment or we can turn our attention to the damage we are doing to our ecosystem and put together a plan to stop turning our planet into a toxic swamp.

We can either continue our dependence on foreign oil or have a new energy policy that will create jobs, put the environment first and stablize our nation's security.

We can continue to have an administration veiled in secrecy or have a new administration dedciated to transparency.

I can go on an on, but I won't.  You either vote for more of the same or vote for change.  The last seven years has been so destructive, so damaging, so insane that I can not fathom anyone who cares about this country voting for anyting but change.

This election is not Hillary or Barack.  It's about change.  Let's get changing, because America can not afford another 4 years of George Bush, John McCain. 

Dear Hillary, I have two words for you

and they are not Happy Birthday.   I will give you three guess what they are, and the first two guesses, we'll forget about.  Here's a little hint the first word rhymes with truck and the second word rhymes with a word that means a female sheep.  Oh, enough with the games.  Fuck. You.   Is that clear?

I am so pissed right now, that I don't even care to have my normal decorum when I write.  Normally, I try to be polite, but I am so far passed that I don't believe that a sitting U.S. Senator and former First Lady even deserves a modicum of respect.  So I say it again. Fuck You.

It takes a lot to get me in this kind of tizzy.  I thought that Hillary crossed a line a few weeks ago with her lies about Bosnia and her politicizing the Reverend Wright controversy (and just to be clear, when I say Dear Hillary, Fuck You, I am talking about Hillary Clinton and not my wife Hilary, who spells her name appropriately with one "l"...don't want my lovely wife to get the wrong idea).

Now this crap about people in small towns being bitter about government not helping them.  Oh my god, people who saw plants close 20 years ago and Washington do nothing to help them might be bitter. You must be joking.  Now Hillary thinks she can paint Obama as elitist because he believes people are bitter. An elitist.  A man whose dad left his family when he was two.  A man who grew up poor in a single parent household and later had to live with his grandparents of modest means.  A man who after graduating from Harvard (a miracle that he even got there given his upbringing) decided to work as a community organizer in Chicago in helping people instead of making the big bucks in corporate law.  Yep, that defines elitist.  Are you fucking kidding me?  (I am going to swear a lot tonight because I am THAT mad).   Fuck you, Hillary

Obama however is much more eloquent and restrained than I am.  His Fuck You comes out so much nicer.

Not sure if I have reached the catharsis I was looking for, but it's closing in on 12:30 am and I need to get to bed.  Hopefully, I will wake up tomorrow and Hillary will have quit.  Anyway, once more with gusto....Fuck You, Hillary!

Feeling a Little Negative

I have to say that I really am on pins and needles as we advance through the primary season.  The eight straight contests won by Barack(a) don't have me feeling like this has been wrapped up.  In fact, the more wounded Hillary gets the more dangerous she is.  Now that she has decided to go negative with her campaign, I wonder just how far she will go.

I have two quick observations on this.  If Obama is going to be a strong general election candidate, he must be able to weather the negative ads that will attack him, unfairly, on everything from his voting record, questionable fundraisers, non-conventional stances like the talking to all foreign leaders friend or foe, etc.  So far he has hit back pretty well, but it is only going to intensify as Hillary gets more desparate to score points. 

Second, the more I watch Hillary's campaign tactics, the more I realize that choosing Barack Obama as my preferred candidate is right on the money.  Think about it.  Hillary wants to be President but has been unable to run a smooth campaign strategy despite raising over $130 million last year.  Her campaign has been unable to pivot and change course.  She had no plan B (after Iowa and Super Tuesday).  She really has resorted to saying anything to get elected and is willing to contradict herself without shame (agreed to the rules about FL and MI, but now wants to rules to change because she benefits).    Really, she is lucky that I love my country so much, because if she wins the nomination I will vote for her regardless of her lack of moral compass, because we don't need another republican president.

Tomorrow, I plan on writing a post of the top 10 things I want Obama to say in the next debate.  Let me know if you have any suggestions. 

Checking My Math

So since my Delegate Math post, we have had 5 contests: Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington and US Virgin Islands on Saturday; wrapping up with Maine on Sunday.  Let's take a quick minute to see how my predictions panned out.

• Louisiana: My prediction was a 36-20 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results 34-22 based on Barack taking 57% of the vote to Hillary's 36% for a 21 point drubbing.  But the delegates didn't come out as planned. So far -2 on the delegate count.
• Nebraska: My prediction was a 16-8 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results 16-8 based on Barack winning 68% of the caucus delegates to Hillary's 32% for another drubbing this one by 26 points.  Delegate count hit right on the head.  So I am still -2.
• US Virgin Islands: I had no clue on how to call this race, so to be conservative I split the 3 delegates 2-1 for Hillary.  The territory caucus went 90% for Obama, awarding him all 3 delegates.  That makes up the 2 delegates I missed in Lousiana.  Net flat right now.
• Washington: My prediction was a 51-27 delegate count for Barack Obama.  The actual results  gave Obama a 52-26 win with him taking 68% of the caucus delegates compared to Hillary's 31%.  So that pushes my Saturday prediction short 1 delgate.  Obama was +48, I predicted +47.  Not bad.
• Maine: My prediction was a 12-12 split, and this is the one where I screwed the pooch, because Obama continued stomping on Hillary by taking 59% of the caucus delegates to Hillary's 40%, a 19 point descrepancy.  The actual delegate count 15-9.  That moves Obama ahead of my projection +7. 

So overall, pretty good result, 7 ahead of the pace.  Potomac Tuesday is less than 48 hours away and I have Obama +52 (DC +5, Maryland +22, Virginia +25).  Those are big expectations.  Polling looks good with Obama way ahead in all three contests, but we need to see the vote before I can take a breath.   YES WE CAN!

It is like an addiction

Primary season has really distracted me.  I am pretty energized by the idea of a new president and a new course for this country.  But I have to admit, it is beginning to border on obsession.  Last night I spent an hour on a spread sheet doing "delegate math."  In the end, I keep coming to the same answer, there is no way this will be decided without pledged delegates.    Now I am all for letting the process work itself out, but the fact that these two very qualified candidates continue to take about half of the support of those voting leaves us with the very real possibility that some sort of deal has to be worked out.  Who know what it will be, but I do know this,  I can't spend a couple hours each night lurking around all the progressive/liberal/democratic blogs for the next 5 months until the convention.   It will kill me.

Hopefully after Ohio and Texas on March 4th, the Obama and Clinton campaigns will sit down and figure this out, because if we wait until the August convention, we will be behind the eight ball.  That would leave two months to campaign for president.    I will do a delegate math post later, but in the end Obama has a slight advantage, because he should have about 100-200 delegate lead looking at the pledged delegates only when the primaries are over.  It will still require him to get about 300 super delgates to seal the nomination.  But the whole Michigan Florida thing makes this even more suspect.

At the end of the day, the two candidates, Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and few others like Ted Kennedy, John Edwards, Chris Dodd need to work out a suggestion to who should be the candidate.  My fear is Obama is the bigger person in all of the this, and steps aside even though he will have more pledged delegates (regardless of Michigan and Florida).   Of course, they could always be the out of leftfield outcome that they agree to a different candidate...like I don't know...maybe, Al Gore?!?!  Wouldn't that be interesting!  I just hope for my sake, they get this overwith in March.