After Daily Kos's DHinMI's excellent diary yesterday on the delegate count to date and the unlikeliness that either candidate can win the nomination through pledged delegates, I thought I would take a closer look at the actual numbers as they stand now.
Based on the analysis below (albeit on the back of an envelope), I think Obama will have a tall order because he will need about 319 of the 796 superdelegates to win the nomination. It is certainly attainable, but not necessarily a given.
The work I did here tries to take a look at past primaries to predict the delegate counts of the future. I would encourage supporters of either candidate to please critique my assumptions and let me know your thoughts. My profession is in the area of financial analysis, so I try to take some of the lessons in my 15 years or professional experience and apply them here.
| State | Total | BO | % Total | HC | % Total | JE | % Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 45 | 16 | 36% | 15 | 33% | 14 | 31% |
| New Hampshire | 22 | 9 | 41% | 9 | 41% | 4 | 18% |
| Nevada | 25 | 13 | 52% | 12 | 48% | 0 | 0% |
| South Carolina | 45 | 25 | 56% | 12 | 27% | 8 | 18% |
| Early States | 137 | 63 | 48 | 26 |
It is important to note the John Edwards 26 delegate total. It will become a factor, not a determining factor, but a factor nonetheless. So on to Super Tuesday.
| State | Total | BO | % Total | HC | % Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 52 | 29 | 56% | 23 | 44% | |
| Alaska | 13 | 9 | 69% | 4 | 31% | |
| America Somoa | 3 | 1 | 33% | 2 | 67% | |
| Arizona | 56 | 25 | 45% | 31 | 55% | |
| Arkansas | 35 | 8 | 23% | 27 | 77% | |
| California | 370 | 163 | 44% | 207 | 56% | |
| Colorado | 55 | 37 | 67% | 18 | 33% | |
| Connecticut | 48 | 26 | 54% | 22 | 46% | |
| Delaware | 15 | 9 | 60% | 6 | 40% | |
| Georgia | 87 | 60 | 69% | 27 | 31% | |
| Idaho | 18 | 15 | 83% | 3 | 17% | |
| Illinois | 153 | 101 | 66% | 52 | 34% | |
| Kansas | 32 | 23 | 72% | 9 | 28% | |
| Massachusetts | 93 | 37 | 40% | 56 | 60% | |
| Minnesota | 72 | 48 | 67% | 24 | 33% | |
| Missouri | 72 | 36 | 50% | 36 | 50% | |
| New Jersey | 107 | 48 | 45% | 59 | 55% | |
| New Mexico | 26 | 13 | 50% | 13 | 50% | |
| New York | 232 | 95 | 41% | 137 | 59% | |
| North Dakota | 13 | 8 | 62% | 5 | 38% | |
| Oklahoma | 38 | 14 | 37% | 24 | 63% | |
| Tennessee | 68 | 29 | 43% | 39 | 57% | |
| Utah | 23 | 13 | 57% | 10 | 43% | |
| Super Tuesday | 1681 | 847 | 834 | |||
| Totals to Date | 1818 | 910 | 882 |
I have included the % totals to help me with allocating the remaining pledged delegates. First, let's look at the remaining contests that will determine the who receives the remaining 1435 pledged delegates. The way I see it they will break this way:
Barack Obama: Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota.
Hillary Clinton: Dems Abroad, Virgin Islands, Ohio, Texas, Pennslyvania, Guam, Puerto Rico.
Tie: Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, Kentucky.
OK, I know that most delegates are determined by congressional district with the remainder divided up based on statewide vote. If I were to do it accurately, I would look at each CD, but I think the results to date, especially on Super Tuesday give an idea of how things will break.
For the most part Hillary is favored in big states, Ohio, Texas and Pennslvania. If you look at California, New Jersey and Tennesee (I threw out New York because it is her home state). The delegate split was 55%/45%, so that is what I will use in HC states.
On the other hand, Barack Obama was a little more succesful in states he won, especially caucus states (again I ignore the home state, Illinois). For Obama states, I went with a 65%/35% split. Needless to say, Tie states are split 50%/50%. So this is what the remaining primaries look like:
| State | Total | BO | # Needed | HC | # Needed | Favored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dems Abroad | 7 | 3 | 1112 | 4 | 1139 | HC |
| Louisiana | 56 | 36 | 1076 | 20 | 1119 | BO |
| Nebraska | 24 | 16 | 1060 | 8 | 1111 | BO |
| Washington | 78 | 51 | 1009 | 27 | 1084 | BO |
| Virgin Islands | 3 | 1 | 1008 | 2 | 1082 | HC |
| Maine | 24 | 12 | 996 | 12 | 1070 | Tie |
| D.C. | 15 | 10 | 986 | 5 | 1065 | BO |
| Maryland | 70 | 46 | 940 | 24 | 1041 | BO |
| Virginia | 83 | 54 | 886 | 29 | 1012 | BO |
| Hawaii | 20 | 13 | 873 | 7 | 1005 | BO |
| Wisconsin | 74 | 48 | 825 | 26 | 979 | BO |
| Ohio | 141 | 61 | 764 | 80 | 899 | HC |
| Rhode Island | 21 | 11 | 753 | 10 | 889 | Tie |
| Texas | 193 | 83 | 670 | 110 | 779 | HC |
| Vermont | 15 | 8 | 662 | 7 | 772 | Tie |
| Wyoming | 12 | 8 | 654 | 4 | 768 | BO |
| Mississippi | 33 | 21 | 633 | 12 | 756 | BO |
| Pennsylvania | 158 | 68 | 565 | 90 | 666 | HC |
| Guam | 4 | 2 | 563 | 2 | 664 | HC |
| Indiana | 72 | 47 | 516 | 25 | 639 | BO |
| North Carolina | 115 | 75 | 441 | 40 | 599 | BO |
| West Virginia | 28 | 18 | 423 | 10 | 589 | BO |
| Kentucky | 51 | 26 | 397 | 25 | 564 | Tie |
| Oregon | 52 | 34 | 363 | 18 | 546 | BO |
| Montana | 16 | 10 | 353 | 6 | 540 | BO |
| South Dakota | 15 | 10 | 343 | 5 | 535 | BO |
| Puerto Rico | 55 | 24 | 319 | 31 | 504 | HC |
| Total to be Awarded | 1435 | 796 | 639 | |||
| Estimated Pledged Dels | 3253 | 1706 | 1521 |
That means Obama needs 319 Superdelegates (40% of the 796) to hit the magic 2025 for the nomination, on the flipside Clinton needs 504 Superdelegates (63%). Notice the descrepancy if you add the 2 percentages, it equals 103%. That's because of the 26 pledged delgates that Edwards holds. Which ever candidate gets those delegates will have three precentage points shaved of his/her needed superdelegate total.
I think the biggest thing I take from this back of the envelope estimate is the importance of the big states to Clinton. If she doesn't get Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania (or even if its a tie). The Math changes dramatically for Obama. A tie in any one of those states, reduces his needed superdelegate total 25-30 delegates. If he wins one of those states, he picks up 55-60 pledges delegates that plus an Edwards endorsement with his 26 delegates moves his superdelegate requirement to a very attainable 233-238 (or about 30%). If he picks up two of those states and it is effectively game over. Of course, the Michigan/Florida request by the Clinton camp because even more important, but that is a subject for another diary. So have at it, let me know where I messed up. Thanks.

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